Assuming that you think that venture capitalists are decent forecasters of the future you might find the NVCA’s 2009 VC prediction study interesting. The study, linked here, is the National Venture Capital Associations annual study where the group asks Vcs a bunch of questions about what they think the next year will bring. Of course, since most VCs (hopefully) get about 4 out of 10 companies they invest in forecasted correctly, the study should be taken with a grain of salt.
There are some real take aways in the survey that should be noted by startup technology CEOs thinking about raising venture fund raising. In particular, the surveyed VCs predict that in 2009 fewer venture dollars will be invested. Also, fewer angel and early stage investments are projected. This is not a great sign. (see pages 3 and 9.) Additionally, some sectors that are traditionally heavy users of venture funding, such as semiconductors, appear to be out of favor. Not too surprising, venture capitalists continue to be into the cleantech space. I am a little surprised that the internet sector and the software sector got such a negative outlook. My gut would be that VCs are turning negative on the traditional internet advertising driven model. For software, not totally sure, but maybe VCs see a real slowdown in enterprise software purchases.
If early stage startup financing dollars do dramatically drop in the coming year then entrepreneurs need to be careful NOW in how they plan for growth.
