There has been a lot of talk recently about the amount of value venture capital brings to the US economy. As usual, this includes a lot of griping by entrepreneurs who were unable to raise venture funding and who thus rip on venture capitalists. Occasionally, there is an academic report that attempts to shine a little light on the subject. Many times these professors do not really understand VC, having never helped start a company nor invested money in startups. But on those rare times when a person who really understand finance and startups publishes a robust study it is really worth paying attention.
That is why a recent TechCrunch article, “What Have VCs Really Done for Innovation,” posted by Vivek Wadhwa, has got me thinking. Vivek is a professor (at Harvard, and I think Duke) who has also helped grow software companies and worked for CSFB. Not only his is his background the right one to study entrepreneurship and venture funding, but his post was thoughtful and much more measured than the typical VC-bashing.
Vivek is responding to the NVCA’s recent PR campaign. In this campaign, the NVCA highlights venture capital’s contributions to the US economy and how a lot of innovation in the US has been done at/by venture funded companies. Here are some of Vivek’s key points, as picked by me:
- The NVCA claims that 81% of tech jobs and 21% of GDP is produced by venture-backed companies; Vivek responds by asking: “would those jobs never have been created if the VCs had never appeared on the scene? How can the NVCA prove causality?”
- He highlights some research he is about to publish on how, after interviewing over 500 successful entrepreneurs, only 10% raised VC in their first venture and only 25% raised VC for their second. In other words, not that high of a percentage of successful companies bother/need to raise venture funding.
- “The fact is that VC’s follow innovation, they don’t lead. They go where they smell blood.”
- VC investments don’t really out-perform other investment asset classes (he specifically discusses research vs. the Russell 2000 index).
- “What’s behind the NVCA’s voodoo economics? Even though they vehemently deny it, VCs are looking for bailout money and tax-breaks.”
These are some pretty negative opinions – from someone who has a right to be making them. I agree with some of his points, but not all. At the risk of sounding too much like a VC industry defender (remember I used to be one!) here are my responses/takes on his points:
5. Starting from the last point, I think Vivek is half right. The venture industry is fighting a real battle to avoid having their carry taxed as capital gains. However, other than a change in government policy towards cleantech I don’t think VCs are looking for bailout $. What I really think VCs are looking for from the government is to try to avoid being lumped in with “evil” private equity and hedge funds and thus become regulated as “risks to the US economy.” See my post on how private equity regulation might impact venture capital firms. In fact, this point is really a core reason why the NVCA has started making so much noise recently. Regulation could have a negative impact on venture investments, at least for smaller firms that can’t afford the time and effort to comply/prove to the government that their investments aren’t about to cause a global financial meltdown.
4. He’s probably right.
3. Again, he has a real point. But I disagree that all VC funds ignore innovation. First of all, what defines innovation? Would Google have been innovation? It’s not like they were the first search engine. In fact, the search space was already a sexy place to invest when they got funded. But, as a user of their search, analytics and ad words products I’m pretty happy this non-innovative company received money from their venture capitalists. Secondly, what makes venture capital so important for the US economy is not just the creation of innovation, but the commercialization of innovation. Universities are great at fostering innovation, but it is usually companies that take that innovation and create jobs and technologies that can be used. But, I do agree that there is a lot of me-too investing in the venture capital world. Too many of the same ideas do get funded – sometimes I actually wonder if this actually hurts innovation by creating too much undifferentiated competition in nascent markets. But that is probably something for another post.
2. I also agree with this. The ratio sounds about right. I’m willing to bet that many of those unfunded companies would have been less successful if they had raised venture capital. Venture funding is not right for most companies, even “successful” ones. Entrepreneurs too often think that their business needs venture funding to be successful – but as I like to say “don’t raise venture capital.” But I don’t think this is an indictment of the venture industry; it is more a generic point that most companies do not require VC to get where they are going.
1. I can’t really speak to the validity of the NVCA’s numbers in terms of what % of the US economy is based on venture funded businesses. However, I can say that venture funding does help companies get bigger faster. I know I just made fun of it, but would Facebook be as large as it is without venture funding?
Vivek has some very good points, and he presents them with data – which makes them even more powerful. I understand his negative reaction to the NVCA’s PR campaign – it is a little over the top. However, I think venture capital is important to this country’s technology leadership. While I don’t think the US needs MORE venture funding, I do think that a healthy early-stage financing environment is necessary to foster continued innovation here. I hope that as we come out of this downturn and seek to change the financial landscape that early-stage investors are not caught in a regulatory net designed to keep hedge funds from doing silly things with highly-leveraged derivatives or other exotic instruments.
September 21st, 2009 at 7:32 pm
Nice post Healy, very thought-provoking.
September 21st, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Thanks for reading!
September 21st, 2009 at 5:02 pm
[...] his Startable blog, former Atlas VC Healy Jones splits the difference and calls Wadhwa thoughtful but takes exception with his claim that VCs “go where they smell [...]
September 21st, 2009 at 9:52 pm
[...] See the rest here: Do VCs add any value? | Startable – Heal… [...]
September 22nd, 2009 at 2:48 am
thought provoking, as always.
September 22nd, 2009 at 4:03 am
Healy, you're right on most points. I was deliberately very provocative in that piece because I wanted to make a strong point. But I wasn't nearly as over the top as was the NVCA report. That had some interesting data on VC investment over time, but all of their computations were what I call "vodoo economics". Sometimes you need to fight fire with fire.
Some of my good friends are VC's and they add tremendous value and shine. I wish the majority were like them.
Regards,
Vivek
Duke, Harvard, UC-Berkeley (but a tech guy at heart)
September 22nd, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Vivek,
Thanks for the comment, and more importantly thanks for the thoughtful TC post. As I said in my post, I really think your points are much more hard-hitting than the traditional "I don't like venture capital" rants all over the internet.
I feel that the venture industry is in the middle of a tough patch, with the 10 year returns about to drop as the 1999 bubble returns fall off, as the IPO market continues to be difficult, as cleantech proves to be a much slower maturing exit investment area than expected and as the government considers regulating the financial services industry, etc. I'd guess the NVCA's PR campaign is an attempt to head off the government regulation. Like most lobbying efforts, it is probably a bit over the top.
I'm really interested in the research that you'll be publishing in October. I'll be following closely and will be sure to read it once it's available.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:41 am
On point number 2:
"only 10% raised VC in their first venture and only 25% raised VC for their second. In other words, not that high of a percentage of successful companies bother/need to raise venture funding."
I didn't see anything in the quote that stated their first two ventures were indeed successful. I've seen plenty of apocryphal statistics on successful entrepreneurs suggesting that, on average, they don't succeed until their 3rd time out. If the first two ventures were failures, it would flip the analysis on its head. Could you clarify?
Thanks. Great post.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:05 am
Healy, that is why we need to set the facts straight and let the industry shake itself out. My VC friends think this shakeout is overdue. I am not sure if the NVCA is lobbying against government regulation or have drunk too much of their own KoolAid. This was the fifth in the series with the claims getting more and more outrageous. I felt I needed to go out on a limb and challenge them.
Having said that, I believe that a healthy VC industry is critical to our economy and long-term well being. We need the money, experience and mentoring which the "good" VC's provide.
My next report is titled "Making of a Successful Entrepreneur". We asked company founders what factors they attributed their success to, what stopped their peers from following in their footsteps, and sources of financing. I found these results even more interesting than what we reported in the "Anatomy of an Entrepreneur" report which seems to be getting so much attention now. Guess what the top 3 success factors were? Experience, management and LUCK. I was really surprised that (like me), entrepreneurs placed so much importance on this factor.
Kauffman Foundation is targeting a release during the week of Oct 5 or 12 for this.
Regards,
Vivek
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:09 am
The vast majority of startups in SV don't get to the revenue stage. We picked those that did have real revenue. Whether these companies will succeed in the long term is uncertain. But the sample was skewed towards the survivors..or what we called the "successful". There is no perfect definition here or sampling method. My goal was to gather as much useful data as we could and lay the groundwork for other researchers to build on this.
September 23rd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
I'm not sure the VC industry will actually have the shake out until limited partners decide to reduce their commitments to the asset class. I've seen some reduction, but it still feels like LPs are investing in new funds – although I'd really like to see data on the number of new funds vs. historical norms. Have you seen data on this?
Re: the report – I'm not at all surprised that luck played an important part of success. Although, I'm also willing to go out on a limb and say that these entrepreneurs probably helped create their own luck by hard work and smart execution! Can't wait for the report.
September 27th, 2009 at 2:34 am
Healy & Vivek ,
Interesting and thought [rovoking discussion this !!
I tend to agree on most of Vivek's and Healy's points and they have been put aptly.
We need more of these healthy discussions going.
Cheers,
Venu
December 5th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
[...] been created by venture funds and the level of innovation that had come from venture investors. (My post in response got some good traction too.) I’m very curious to hear his take on globalization in light of [...]