Nielsen has a great blog post on smartphones, Droid and mobile applications. Some of the most interesting points they make are:
- Over the next several months at least six new smartphone devices (like Droid) will be released - these devices are going to have large screens, keyboards and a wide array of applications.
- More smart phones are accessing web pages vs. “dumb” phones as of Q3 2009.
- 24% of cell phone sales in Q3 2009 were smartphones; Nielson expects this to jump to 40% in Q4.
- In 2011 50% of all phone sales will be smartphones
- In 2011 120 million mobile users will be on the internet, and 90 million will be watching video on their phone.
It is clear that we are finally reaching that critical tipping point in terms of mobile internet usage. (I guess we were already there, but now even a slow person like me can see it clearly.) But I believe that phones ARE the internet/computer for many people these days, and that there continues to be opportunity developing services, apps and sites specifically designed for these users. The evidence I’ve seen recently speaks to this point; in particular several of the Techstars mobile companies have really had amazing adoption.
Is Droid, for that matter any of these other new smartphones, going to really take on the iPhone and emerge as a real alternative smartphone platform? I understand that iPhone has a real lead in apps, but I don’t think the market is won yet (although I am a pretty happy iPhone user.) Blackberry shouldn’t be forgotten about either, since their market share is surprisingly large and I think grew to 19% of smartphones recently due to their new phones positive receptions. My gut is that at least BB and iPhone are going to continue to gain share real market share. I have no idea how Droid will do, but if it got 10+% market share over the next year or so I wouldn’t be shocked. And I think it might be good for the overall market if 3 competing smartphone platforms all had real volume.
