Aug 23

There was a good piece by Scott Austin, the WSJ’s venture writer, on how the three venture investors in 3Par have held onto their shares since the company’s 2007 IPO. While the company was buffeted by the difficult stock market over the past few years it was unclear what their eventual return would be - but now it’s looking pretty good! The company is on the good end of a bidding war between Dell & HP, and looks like it will be picked up for almost 2x its IPO price.

The key take aways here (in my opinion) are that sometimes patience is a major advantage, and that is still possible to make money post-IPO for VCs.

3Par is a digital storage manufacturer.

Aug 17

Dan Primack, the face behind peHUB - the must read gossip/news/it blog for the VC/PE industry - has just announced he is moving from Reuters to Fortune. He’s been with Reuters for five years (well, he was with the same employer, but Reuters made some acquisitions that brought him into the fold.) Dan started the peHUB newsletter in 2002; I discovered it that year when I was working at Summit Partners in Palo Alto.

For some strange reason, Dan’s move has made me think about my own career since 2002. Although I’ve met Dan a couple of times at large events, I’ve never really had more than an “how ya doing” type conversation with him - but somehow he’s been a very consistent part of my professional life for almost 8 years! And in that time I’ve had full time jobs with two funds, two internships with two others, completed a full time MBA and joined the executive team of a startup, OfficeDrop. Maybe he’s been the most consistent part of my professional life, actually…

Good luck to Dan at Fortune; hopefully his new newsletter/blog will be just as interesting as peHUB. And hopefully peHUB will continue to produce good content too! Although, I hope Dan gets a new profile picture… his current one looks like a mug shot, with him wearing an orange prison jumpsuit:

Dan Primack's Mugshot

Dan Primack's Mugshot

Aug 17

peHUB has an interesting interview with Aydin Senkut, a West Coast angel investor who is at the forefront of angel investing. There has been a ton of chatter about the “angel investing bubble” and the idea that “angel investing is where venture capital was 20 years ago.”

Aydin’s new angel fund, Felicis Ventures, seems to be the new face of where the angel market is headed. He has just raised a $40 million seed fund from institutional investors (mainly fund of funds) and intends to invest mainly in startup companies seed rounds, which some reserved for follow-ons in later rounds.

Aydin says:

we have a seed-stage bucket out of which we’ll continue making investments like before. We also have an allocation for Series A deals, including for companies that we haven’t had a chance to discover at the seed level. And we have a Series B allocation, based on my positive experience of [investing in the personal investing site] Mint [which sold to Intuit last year for $170 million, after raising $31 million over four rounds in two years], so we can keep our pro rata portion of a deal…

At the seed stage, we’ll invest between $100,000 to $500,000. At the Series A stage, we’ll invest between $500,000 to $1 million, and at the Series B stage, we’ll invest between $1 million and $2 million. These are definitely smaller amounts, and it’s intentional.

I hope this strategy works. I realize there are a lot of angel investors out there, and I’m sure some of them will not be successful. But as someone interested in seeing new ideas tested quickly and as someone who love seeing new entrepreneurs getting funded these types of funds will hopefully be very positive.

Other angel investors can learn a lot from the reserve allocation strategy proposed by Felicis Ventures. Keeping capital on the side to support good companies through their subsequent fund raising rounds can significantly boost returns - assuming the investor is disciplined enough to stop backing companies that are having problems!

Aug 12

According to a short piece in the WSJ the startup financing environment is looking up for startups that are seeking a subsequent round of venture financing. Read the piece here, but the key take away is that 55% of companies are raising capital at an UP valuation!

Aug 9

With the explosion of different staged venture capital sources it is becoming difficult to know where to turn for your first round of financing. How is an ordinary entrepreneur supposed to understand which funding group is the right one for her business? Rather than explaining the difference between micro-VCs, angel groups, big-time venture capitalists, growth funds in text, I thought I would draw a helpful diagram (I haven’t done one of these in a long, long time!)

The X axis is the stage of the company seeking funding - from just an idea on the left to a profitable company with a big revenue base on the right.

The Y axis is the amount of capital required - from a tiny amount at the bottom to many millions at the top.

Finding right 1st round investor

Finding right 1st round investor

Aug 5

peHUB exposes the truth in getting venture financing - skinnier people living in more svelte states are more likely to raise venture capital! http://www.pehub.com/79078/high-obesity-correlates-with-low-venture-activity/

Now we know the truth about why fried-twinkies-direct.com has never been able to get venture capital!!!

Jul 16

PWC/NVCA venture capital data is out for the first half of 2010. Happily, New England venture investing is moving along with the rest of the US, and nicely increased from the first half of 2009 - when looked at from a first half of the year perspective.

VC $ Invested First Half of the Years

VC $ Invested First Half of the Years

Deal Volume:

First Half VC Deal Volume

First Half VC Deal Volume

But the Q1 to Q2 data shows a different story.

The thing that is interesting to me about the New England data is that NE deal volume stayed flat from Q1 2010 to Q2 from 96 to 95, while the entire of the US was up 740 to 906. Also, the dollar volume in NE was DOWN from $796 million to $581 million, while the US was up $4.87 billion to $6.52 billion.

Why was New England down while the US was up?

It could be partly because all the deals have yet to be reported in New England, but I don’t know if that would explain such a big drop in dollars invested vs. the rest of the US. This also means that the average deal size in NE is also down quite a bit. I know there is a ton of angel investment activity in Boston, which is a great thing, but does this mean the later stage VCs are gone? Anyone have any ideas??

Jul 14

My post yesterday on the Northeast venture capital outlook got some good traction, and was reposted on Venturefizz. Today PEhub pointed me to a new NVCA/Deloitte survey of 500 VCs on their outlook projections. US VCs think that the number of venture firms in the US is going to shrink, in “the United States [...] 92 percent of U.S. venture capitalists expect the number of venture capital firms to decline.”

I guess that’s not too surprising. The venture market in the US is undergoing some pretty significant changes, with some very established firms not able to raise new funds, some newish funds not being able to raise 2nd or 3rd funds and some other established firms raising new funds, but shrinking in size.

However, there do seem to be a larger number of seed/micro-VCs coming into the mix (I am thinking of Rob Go & company’s new fund, and the seed fund announced by Gabriel Weinberg and friends, all the TechStars like incubators that provide funding, etc…) I have no idea what these funds will do to influence the overall number of funds in the US. I doubt that they can make the aggregate number of funds “break even” as in not shrink - but the can help offset the total number of fund decline somewhat.

What these funds can’t do is dramatically increase the total DOLLAR amount of VC available in the US. I doubt that the entire super-angel/micro-VC funds raised in this and last year will total $500 million - the amount of VC $ lost as a result of a single big traditional venture fund going out of business. (I have no data to prove this, it is a gut reaction. I do like numbers if anyone has them.)

I don’t think this is going to hurt the sector that I really love, the internet space. I won’t get into the whole capital efficiency thing that is now possible for internet companies - it’s well covered. But I do wonder how clean tech and bio tech - two capital intensive spaces - will deal with the capital shortage. I think it will be ugly for them. :(

Finally the survey asks VCs why they think the world is shrinking. The results are:

Factors cited most often for an unfavorable investment climate in the U.S. were difficulty in achieving successful exits (88 percent); unfavorable tax policies (59 percent) and unstable regulatory environment (53 percent). The prevalence of these challenges represents a stark contrast to responses five years ago when the survey posed a similar line of questions.

I continue to believe that the first reason, the poor exit environment, is the major driver of problems for the US venture industry. In particular, the lack of IPOs is a major issue. When a company goes public it not only raises a lot of capital to expand, it also generates wealth that flows back into the entrepreneurial/VC ecosystem (via limited partners and employees options). Additionally, public companies get a lot of press - press that inspires other executives to think about the glories of founding their own companies. This is press that continues as the company grows (unlike press that happens after a company is aquired, which tends to trail off after the initial announcement.) Finally, public companies have cash and stock that they can use to acquire other tech companies and keep the good times rolling.

However, I have no solution to this lack of IPO problem. It’s more than just regulation (although becoming a public company is expensive with accounting/compliance/legal etc.) I think there may be a problem with the investment banking environment. There doesn’t seem to be the level of trading support for companies once they have gone public. But I think the $ are gone from the trading market, so I don’t know how this could ever return. OK, now I’m getting out of my league and will stop this post, because we have gone from pure conjecture to me totally making stuff up out of thin air…

Jul 13

I attended the AlwaysOn Venture Summit East last month, and was just sent a survey of venture capitalists in the Northeast that came out of that conference. Happily, our local VC friends are pretty optimistic about the rest of the year. You can get the survey here.

In particular, they think that the number of new financings will increase pretty significantly in the second half of 2010 and into 2011:

volume_of_venture_financings_surveyThe survey also suggests that the dollar amount invested will grow in line with the number of new deals. (I’m not going to bother to paste in that chart since it looks pretty similar to the one above.)

VCs are also excited about early-stage investing in the coming years. I guess that’s not too surprising, since that is where they traditionally invest money. The large percentage interested in seed financing is pretty interesting, but without a feel for what this chart has looked like over the past few years I can’t really draw any conclusions on how the environment is changing. But still, an interesting chart.

best_stage_for_vc_2010More VCs seem weighted toward slightly higher valuations than lower - although most, 43%, claim to think that valuations will be flat in 2010 and 2011. Hmm… I tend to think valuations are going up! Let’s start that rumor.

Finally, the charts on exits. When I first looked at it I felt that it seemed pretty optimistic; over 40% of VCs think that at least 20% of their portfolio is ready for exit. But it’s hard to argue that this really means anything. From my time at VCs, 20% of portfolio companies being at a stage when they could be sold is pretty standard. The real question isn’t
“are companies ready for exit.” The real question is, “are the capital markets open.” Open, as in, are there IPOs/M&A opportunities for tech companies.

venture_exits_2011_2010

Jun 14

When you are an entrepreneur trying to build a product at a startup, you are in a pretty risky place. Usually you are not generating cash flow, you don’t yet know exactly which features are going to be required by the marketplace and you aren’t yet sure how you are going to market/sell the product (i.e. haven’t gotten product-market fit yet.)

Startup founders often see raising venture capital as a way to mitigate the risk of starting a business - basically, they get to play with the VCs money while they work out how to create a real business/get the product working. Having a salary is a great risk hedge (vs. no salary and working only for equity upside); a salary sure beats working for a couple of years w/o cash flow! If you spend the venture capital wisely, then you get to increase your cash burn to more quickly hit your target market and get your product to market. This is pretty much the thought process we had at OfficeDrop when we raised a modest amount of capital. It was becoming onerous to not get paid a salary, and we wanted to invest money in product development and marketing. And in our case, so far so good! :)

I recently read a post by Fred Wilson on CAPM, which describes the trade off between return and risk. There was a great comment by somebody named Julien, “I would love to hear about the current beta in the venture ecosystem. My bet is that it’s always very high, which induces stress for the VCs themselves, that they tend to transfer down to the startups in which they invest.” In other words, can VCs actually increase the risk of the startup? I believe that they can.

Venture Capital can make a startup riskier

How can this be? I want to make it clear that this is not usually the case - most VCs are actually helping derisk their startups’ business models. But raising money can make a startup more dangerous (for the founder in particular.)

The biggest way a VC can increase a startup founder’s risk is by not participating in a follow on round of financing. As herd animals, VCs look to each other for signals. An existing investor not investing in a subsequent round is a major red flag that something is wrong with the business. That’s why I’ve always recommended syndicating your Series A Round - you decrease the likelihood that no existing investor steps up. (Note that I have ignored my own advice with OfficeDrop.) There are other reasons that a venture capital firm will not invest - such as the fund running out of money or the partner who made the original investment leaving the fund.

IT Venture capitalists usually like to invest in “product” businesses - by product I mean businesses that generate revenue by selling something this is not based on billing out a person at a particular rate. I’m not describing this well, but VCs generally don’t like body based businesses that scale only as people are added (people who get billed out). But contrast this with a business that starts as a service and creates a product based on its own or its clients needs. A service based business can be profitable from day one for the founder, generating cash to pay the bills and cash to iterate to a product that the market wants. Great examples are 37Signals or FreshBooks (I know there is a great interview w/a 37Signals founder about why he doesn’t like VC, but I can’t find it this morning). Think about what would have happened if the initial products they created had flopped. If they had no venture capital, then they would have gone back to having great consulting businesses and maybe would have tried again later to create another software product. But if they had raised VC, their investors would not have been happy with them going back to having a couple of person business that looked like it could generate a couple hundred thousand $ in consulting revenue for the next few years - they would have insisted in putting massive amounts of development dollars into finding the next idea, even if the founders didn’t have a great one at that moment.

VCs also invest money with a pretty specific purpose - to build a company along the investment thesis the founder pitched initially. But if the initial product idea is failing, it becomes the founder’s responsibility to convince the investor that a pivot is needed. A good VC will act as a smart advisor, working with the founder to assess the situation and helping the founder find the right ways to pivot. The best VCs make introductions to potential customers before and during a pivot so that the founder can get smarter before the jump. But a VC may slow down the pivot, trying to get the founder to spend more time and money on the initial thesis. This can happen for a variety of reasons, but some of them may not be transparent to the startup. In particular, if the VC is having to play politics at his/her fund, they may not want to have to go back to the fund’s partnership and admit that their initial thesis was a failure. For a lot of startups, the road to success is paved with a series of small failures (i.e. learning experiences). Hopefully your VC does not mind these road bumps to victory.

Once you’ve raised a lot of money, there can be pressure to spend the cash. Even VCs with a lot of patience want to see their portfolio companies working hard to build a business. Everyone, from VC to entrepreneur, wants to see progress between board meetings. Recently I was hanging out with an executive of a locally funded startup who just admitted to wasting close to $100k on an Adwords campaign that she knew wouldn’t work. Having raised a significant sum of venture funding, the startup is getting pressure from the investors to spend the money to ramp up sales. Because the investors had experienced success with Adwords at a different portfolio company, they aggressively suggested a serious Adwords campaign. However, this particular startup’s space had very expensive PPC, and the basic math of generating positive ROI from Adwords just was never going to be there for the company. VCs need to see growth to justify their investment. I prefer to spend a little money and take a little more time to succeed or fail in my marketing efforts. Many VCs will prefer to spend big to determine failure fast. I’m not sure how much of your company you give up for $100k, but it’s probably a decent percent coming out of the founder’s pocket. Have a good conversation with your investor prior to the investment to make sure you are on the same page in spending the cash.

Venture capitalists make their money with big exits. For most VCs, making two times their investment is not considered a great use of capital. This means that VCs pressure companies to go big, which can destroy a great little business. As I talk about in my post “Don’t Raise Venture Capital,” make sure your goals are aligned with the goals of the investors before you raise money.

Venture capitalists can sometimes push out a founder. Fred once again has another great post, this one on parting ways with a founder.* While this may or may not be good for the startup, it does mean that the founder who gets pushed out will probably no longer vest equity. Since you are no longer working for yourself when you raise venture financing, you can increase your own personal risk if it is decided that you are no longer needed at the startup.

I’m not suggesting that you don’t raise venture capital for your startup. However, I don’t know if most founders consider the baggage that comes along with a check from a venture fund. The right venture capitalist can really help grow your business - but make sure you and your team are ready to go big when you bring all that cash onto your balance sheet.

*Note that I agree with Fred’s thesis; sometimes an early founder can be bad for a business as it grows. I can think of one example where the employees hated working with one of the co-founders of a startup because the co-founder was pretty much a jerk. When you lose great engineers because one of your co-founders pisses off everyone he interacts with you’ve got a problem. I’ve also seen a situation where one of the co-founders started spending a lot of time not working, which really de-motivated the other founders and engineers who were working 80+ hours to launch the product. If someone decides to no longer pull their weight, why should they continue to get paid and own a big % of the business - especially when it is a fresh startup that was just recently founded?

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